Friday, May 27, 2016

Embarrassing defeat

Chee Soon Juan said it didn't feel like defeat to him in the Bulit Batok by-election. The SDP got 38.8% of the votes. Really? He was only trying to console himself. 

There were unique factors in favour of the opposition and then there was ample time (about 2 months) for the SDP to campaign and it held 4 rallies. I guess Chee was thinking he could get at least 48%. I would say the result is an embarrassing defeat for Chee.

In any election, there are always between 20% to 25% voters who will vote for the opposition. To these voters any opposition is better than the PAP. So, if the Reform Party were the only party to contest against the PAP in Bukit Batok, probably it would get about 30% of the votes. Likewise, if it were the Workers Party, I think it would be between 40% to 45%.

The SDP got 38.8% of the votes in BB. Now, how many voters regard the SDP as their first choice opposition? In other words, if there were other opposition candidates contesting, how many percentage would the SDP get? My guess is less than 20%.

It would have been interesting if both the WP and the SDP had contested in the BB by-election. Then we could compare the support these two top opposition parties get. Could the PAP still get over 60%? Would the SDP lose its deposit?